The Final Five: Breaking Down the Tactical Case for the 2024 NFL MVP
NEW YORK, NY — The Associated Press has officially narrowed the most prestigious award in professional sports to five names. **Josh Allen, Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Saquon Barkley** are the finalists for the 2024-25 NFL MVP. While the league has historically defaulted to the best quarterback on the best team, this year’s ballot features a tactical diversity that makes the winner nearly impossible to predict until the envelope is opened in New Orleans.
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The Quarterback Cluster: Efficiency vs. Volume
This group represents three different ways a modern quarterback can dominate. **Josh Allen** led the field in total offensive production, accounting for **44 total touchdowns**. His tactical value comes from his role as the Bills’ primary goal-line threat, neutralizing light defensive boxes with his legs while maintaining a top-five “Big Time Throw” rate. By essentially acting as both the QB1 and the RB1 in high-leverage situations, Allen carried a Buffalo roster that many expected to regress after offseason cap casualties.
**Lamar Jackson** and **Patrick Mahomes** both secure their spots by virtue of situational dominance. Jackson’s Ravens finished with the AFC’s top seed, fueled by his ability to maintain a **7.8 yards-per-attempt** average while serving as the league’s most dangerous scrambler. Mahomes, conversely, thrived in high-leverage “Weight Down” moments, leading the NFL in third-down conversion percentage and success rate against the blitz. Even with a lower total touchdown count than previous years, Mahomes’ “Success Rate” per dropback remained elite, keeping the Chiefs’ offense on schedule despite a rotating cast of receivers.
The dark horse is **Jared Goff**. The Lions’ signal-caller finished with a **67.3% completion rate** and played with a level of schematic discipline that allowed Detroit to finish as the league’s #2 scoring offense. His presence on this list validates the “System Pilot” as a viable MVP candidate when the system is executed with nearly zero mental errors.
Inside the Huddle
“If you look at the Expected Points Added (EPA) on a per-play basis, these five guys are in a category of their own. Taking one of them off their respective roster doesn’t just lower the win total—it fundamentally breaks the offensive architecture of the entire team.” — Current NFL Offensive Quality Control Coach
The Bottom Line & What’s Next
The true outlier is **Saquon Barkley**. His inclusion marks the first real threat to the quarterback monopoly since 2012. Barkley finished with **over 2,100 yards from scrimmage**, but his real value was his impact on the Eagles’ RPO (Run-Pass Option) game. Defenses were forced to commit an extra safety to the box on **54% of snaps** when Barkley was in the backfield, opening the deep thirds for the Philadelphia passing attack.
The winner will be crowned on February 6, but the upcoming playoff games will serve as the final “Information Gain” for the public. While the ballots are already cast, the performance of Jackson and Allen in the divisional round will dictate how the league views their regular-season dominance for years to come. If Saquon pulls this off, expect the financial market for veteran running backs to reset this March. The era of devaluing the “bell-cow” back might be officially over.
